Why Oils and Automotive Chemicals Get More Expensive While Crude Oil Falls

Although 2026 forecasts point to cheaper crude oil (Brent around $56 a barrel, roughly 19% below last year), prices for motor oils and automotive chemicals are not falling. Here is why.

The main driver is base oils, not crude. Lubricants are built on base oils (Group II and Group III). With record diesel margins, refineries route feedstock into fuel rather than base oils. As a result Group II is on allocation, and tight Group III became the main driver of the increase — accounting for about 70% of the 2026 rise in synthetic oil prices. Lower crude prices do not remove this shortage.

Additives and chemical feedstock. Additive packages, glycols for antifreeze and alcohols for washer fluids depend on global chemical prices and are also rising.

Packaging, logistics and currency. Polymers for packaging (HDPE, PET), freight costs and exchange-rate swings all add to the final product price.

Analysts expect Group I/II base oils to stabilise around 2026–2027 and Group III in the second half of 2027. Until then prices stay under pressure because of the base-oil shortage, not crude. It pays to plan purchases ahead, and local production and a private label help reduce exposure to swings.